Housing Prices In Many U.S. Cities May Have Started Their Decline
PRNewswire
NEW YORK
Jun 25, 2003
Statistics released by real estate industry groups suggest that average home prices in the U.S. are continuing their climb upward. Most recently, published statistics show the national average home price for existing homes increasing 7% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2003.
According to John Talbott, author of The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, a closer look at the data reveals that things are much less sanguine if one looks at the last six months ending March 31, 2003 instead of last twelve-month data. Instead of growing at 7%, the national growth rate for existing home sales prices in the last six months is zero percent. For many cities in the country home real estate has already begun to trade off with fully 60% of those that reported data showing a price decline. This is a far more pessimistic story than that presented by industry news releases that are dependent on twelve month comparisons.
Below is a list of all the metropolitan areas in the country that reported sales figures for the first quarter of the year. The first column is the standard last 12 month comparison, the second column is the percent change over the last six months (annualized) and the third column is the difference. In many cities the difference is striking. For example, Philadelphia's home prices grew 25% over the last 12 months, but actually shrank 5% over the last six months, for a difference in reporting of 30%!
John Talbott is a Visiting Scholar at UCLA's Anderson School and the author of The Coming Crash of the Housing Market published by McGraw-Hill. In the book, Mr. Talbott accurately predicted the troubles recently reported at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the lack of oversight by OFHEO now being investigated by Congress, and a decline in residential real estate prices that may have already begun.
Existing Home Sales Prices Most Recent Most Recent
12 Months 6 Months Difference
% Change % Change %
Annualized Annualized
Metropolitan Area 4/1/02-3/31/03 10/1/02-3/31/03
Philadelphia, PA/NJ 25.7 -5.02 30.7
Monmouth/Ocean, NJ 23.4 -2.25 25.7
Trenton, NJ 24.0 0.00 24.0
Gary/Hammond, IN 3.0 -20.31 23.3
Toledo, OH 5.9 -16.82 22.7
Newark, NJ 8.3 -14.12 22.4
Canton, OH 7.8 -14.57 22.4
Amarillo, TX 3.7 -18.24 21.9
Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX 8.6 -12.58 21.2
South Bend/Mishawaka, IN -0.6 -21.53 20.9
Akron, OH 7.4 -13.39 20.8
Peoria, IL 3.3 -16.65 20.0
Chicago, IL 11.1 -8.67 19.8
Rochester, NY 3.7 -14.73 18.4
Pittsburgh, PA 5.2 -12.74 17.9
Syracuse, NY 6.0 -11.77 17.8
Hartford, CT 13.6 -3.73 17.3
Bergen/Passaic, NJ 21.1 4.20 16.9
Worcester, MA 8.7 -8.04 16.7
Orange Cnty.
(Anaheim/Santa Ana MSA), CA 20.5 4.14 16.4
Waterloo/Cedar Falls, IA -3.4 -19.42 16.0
Providence, RI 25.7 9.98 15.7
Sacramento, CA 25.3 9.70 15.6
Washington, DC/MD/VA 10.3 -5.10 15.4
Portland, ME 16.4 1.09 15.3
Montgomery, AL -1.7 -16.55 14.8
Richmond/Petersburg, VA 10.1 -4.35 14.5
San Diego, CA 19.5 5.29 14.2
Lake County, IL 3.7 -10.49 14.2
Davenport/Moline/Rock Island, IA/IL 6.8 -7.07 13.9
New York/N. New Jersey/Long Island,
NY/NJ/CT 15.1 1.35 13.8
Indianapolis, IN -0.2 -13.93 13.7
Jacksonville, FL 11.2 -2.44 13.6
San Francisco Bay Area, CA 5.5 -8.08 13.6
Lincoln, NE 5.6 -7.69 13.3
Des Moines, IA 0.6 -12.11 12.7
Miami/Hialeah, FL 16.1 3.45 12.7
Lansing/East Lansing, MI 7.0 -5.47 12.5
Champaign/Urbana/Rantoul, IL 17.7 5.59 12.1
Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood/
Pompano Beach, FL 15.2 3.14 12.1
Rockford, IL 10.9 -1.10 12.0
Baltimore, MD 15.2 3.34 11.9
Milwaukee, WI 9.2 -2.60 11.8
Baton Rouge, LA 5.1 -6.40 11.5
Boston, MA 6.3 -4.89 11.2
Springfield, IL 11.4 0.21 11.2
Biloxi/Gulfport, MS 8.7 -2.46 11.2
San Antonio, TX 4.5 -6.64 11.1
Cedar Rapids, IA 3.4 -7.73 11.1
Corpus Christi, TX 5.4 -5.69 11.1
Gainesville, FL 6.6 -4.23 10.8
Wilmington, DE/NJ/MD 18.0 7.21 10.8
Nassau/Suffolk, NY 17.6 7.37 10.2
Honolulu, HI 12.9 2.92 10.0
Green Bay, WI 1.9 -7.79 9.7
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN/WI 9.3 -0.32 9.6
Seattle, WA 1.0 -8.60 9.6
Madison, WI 7.6 -1.96 9.6
Houston, TX 2.1 -7.45 9.6
Tallahassee, FL -1.6 -11.05 9.5
Orlando, FL 8.0 -1.29 9.3
New Haven/Meriden, CT 21.8 12.62 9.2
Ft. Myers/Cape Coral, FL 7.8 -1.33 9.1
Birmingham, AL 0.2 -8.78 9.0
Memphis, TN/AR/MS 4.4 -4.48 8.9
Wichita, KS 0.3 -8.57 8.9
New Orleans, LA 6.1 -2.70 8.8
Salt Lake City/Ogden, UT 3.6 -5.19 8.8
Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon, NJ 7.0 -1.75 8.7
Topeka, KS 1.6 -7.11 8.7
Eugene/Springfield, OR 5.1 -3.28 8.4
Pensacola, FL 1.4 -6.84 8.2
Melbourne/Titusville/Palm Bay, FL 25.4 17.35 8.1
Albuquerque, NM 4.9 -2.91 7.8
Omaha, NE/IA 1.3 -6.03 7.3
Atlantic City, NJ 17.6 10.27 7.3
Cincinnati, OH/KY/IN 1.1 -6.04 7.1
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 1.5 -5.55 7.1
Greensboro/Winston-Salem/
High Point, NC -1.3 -8.26 7.0
Charleston, SC 6.3 -0.61 6.9
Atlanta, GA 4.1 -2.81 6.9
Chattanooga, TN/GA -4.4 -11.13 6.7
Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater, FL 6.7 0.00 6.7
Fargo/Moorhead, ND/MN 6.7 0.18 6.5
Aurora/Elgin, IL 6.4 0.10 6.3
Denver, CO 2.5 -3.65 6.1
Dallas, TX 3.1 -3.04 6.1
Springfield, MA 9.8 3.90 5.9
Tucson, AZ 9.1 3.42 5.7
Charlotte/Gastonia/Rock Hill, NC/SC 0.3 -5.26 5.6
Kansas City, MO/KS 3.7 -1.85 5.6
El Paso, TX 1.9 -3.54 5.4
Tacoma, WA 3.1 -1.83 4.9
Buffalo/Niagara Falls, NY 7.0 2.09 4.9
Appleton/Oshkosh/Neenah, WI 5.4 0.88 4.5
Grand Rapids, MI 5.3 0.79 4.5
Columbia, SC 1.1 -3.31 4.4
Louisville, KY/IN 6.3 2.07 4.2
Los Angeles Area, CA 16.2 12.73 3.5
Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR 8.1 4.80 3.3
Sioux Falls, SD 8.2 5.11 3.1
Austin/San Marcos, TX -3.8 -6.64 2.8
Portland, OR 5.2 2.42 2.8
Riverside/San Bernardino, CA 18.3 15.83 2.5
Shreveport, LA 9.7 7.94 1.8
Las Vegas, NV 11.9 10.17 1.7
Bradenton, FL 9.7 8.28 1.4
Colorado Springs, CO 3.6 2.52 1.1
Tulsa, OK 3.7 2.65 1.1
Lexington/Fayette, KY 2.6 2.54 0.1
Phoenix, AZ 4.0 4.20 -0.2
Sarasota, FL 15.0 16.54 -1.5
Reno, NV 4.7 6.28 -1.6
Daytona Beach, FL 4.5 6.62 -2.1
Knoxville, TN 6.4 11.11 -4.7
Albany/Schenectady/Troy, NY 8.5 14.76 -6.3
Charleston, WV 3.4 12.04 -8.6
Oklahoma City, OK 2.5 19.48 -17.0
* Based on existing home sales price data provided from National
Association of Realtors
SOURCE: McGraw-Hill Trade
CONTACT: Lydia Rinaldi of McGraw-Hill, +1-212-904-5393,
lydia_rinaldi@mcgraw-hill.com